The Futures Curve
The central object of commodity investing — the storage model derived properly, convenience yield as the value of having the physical good on hand, contango and backwardation as arithmetic outcomes, the roll computed month by month, and how to read a curve for what it says about storage and supply.
Start here
What are you actually looking at when you look at a commodity curve?
Start the first lessonUnit 1 The Storage Model
- What are you actually looking at when you look at a commodity curve?
- Why can't a barrel in December cost whatever the market feels like?
- Why would a refinery pay more for a barrel today than for one in June?
- Why does arbitrage cap the curve from above but never from below?
Practice Check · Unit 1 A short check · cannot be failed Start
Unit 2 Contango & Backwardation
- When is a rising curve just the price of a warehouse?
- What has to be true for December oil to cost less than today's oil?
- Why does January gas cost more than October gas, every single year?
- Does an upward-sloping curve mean the market expects higher prices?
Practice Check · Unit 2 A short check · cannot be failed Start
Unit 3 Rolling and Its Cost
- What actually happens on the day a fund rolls?
- Why does a long position bleed when the price goes nowhere?
- Why can a commodity fund and the commodity itself tell completely different stories?
- How much of a commodity index's return is a design decision?
Practice Check · Unit 3 A short check · cannot be failed Start
Unit 4 Reading the Curve
- How can a barrel of oil be worth less than nothing?
- What can you back out of a curve that nobody publishes?
- Why do traders watch the front spread more closely than the price?
- The commodity curve — course checkpoint
Practice Check · Unit 4 A short check · cannot be failed Start
Last Course exam
One exam, the whole course Unlocks when you have read all 16 lessons
Passing it earns the course certificate.