‹ DCF & Intrinsic Value Lesson 14 of 16
Contents Lesson 14 of 16

3 min read · professional

How do you present a value you're honestly unsure about?

If a single-point answer is false confidence, what should you produce instead? Practitioners don't report "€7.00." They report a structured range — a sensitivity table and a few scenarios that make the uncertainty visible and useful.

The sensitivity table

Pick the two assumptions that move the answer most — usually discount rate and terminal growth — and build a grid. Discount rates across the top, growth rates down the side, intrinsic value in each cell:

  • At 7% WACC / 3% growth → €9.97
  • At 8% WACC / 2.5% growth → €7.00
  • At 9% WACC / 2% growth → €5.30

Now the output isn't a number, it's a landscape. You can see at a glance that reasonable inputs put the value somewhere between roughly €5.30 and €10 — and that the answer is far more sensitive to some corners of the grid than others.

Three scenarios beat one forecast

Alongside the grid, sketch three coherent stories:

  • Bear. Slower growth, thinner margins, a higher discount rate. Every dial turned cautious — say the value lands near €5.
  • Base. Your honest central case — €7.
  • Bull. Faster growth, resilient margins, a lower discount rate — perhaps €9.50.

Crucially, keep each scenario internally consistent: a bull case with high growth should not also assume a low discount rate for a safe company — high growth usually comes with more risk. Scenarios are stories, and the story has to hang together.

What the range tells you

A DCF's real output is a distribution of plausible values, not a point. When you compare it with the market price, you're asking where the price sits inside your range: comfortably below the bear case, above the bull, or lost in the middle where your model has nothing confident to say. Often the honest answer is "the price is inside my range" — which means your model, honestly run, can't distinguish it from fair. That's not a failure; it's the model telling the truth.

Try it now

  1. Build a small sensitivity table for your company: three discount rates across, three growth rates down, nine intrinsic values inside. The output stops being a number and becomes a landscape.
  2. Write out a one-line bear, base, and bull scenario, each internally consistent by the test above, and note the value each implies.
  3. Now place the market inside your range. The price tag, live:
Live API response: apple headline figures

Divide the market capitalisation by the share count below for a per-share figure to compare against your grid:

Live API response: apple share count

For your own company both figures are on the Terminal's fundamentals tab; the link opens Apple and you change the symbol:

Open AAPL.US — fundamentals in the EODHD Terminal

  1. Is the price below your bear case, above your bull, or somewhere in the ambiguous middle? Write one sentence saying what that observation licenses you to claim, and one saying what it does not.